Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's
landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty,
probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't
understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan,
Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by
Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you
think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb-veteran
trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and
New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan-has written a
modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and
skill. This book is about luck-or more precisely, about how we perceive
and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of
the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill-the world
of trading-Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one
of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an
entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual
issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance
on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some
of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the
baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper;
the ancient world's wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George
Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero,
who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life
but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the
most recognizable character of all remains unnamed-the lucky fool who
happens to be in the right place at the right time-he embodies the
"survival of the least fit." Such individuals attract devoted followers
who believe in their guru's insights and methods. But no one can
replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing
the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try
to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible
to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but
after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.
Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial
Times Best Business Book of the Year